2024 Presidential Election: Trump’s Iowa Victory Sets Stage for New Hampshire Showdown

Former President Donald J. Trump’s resounding victory in Iowa significantly raises the stakes of next week’s New Hampshire primary for Nikki Haley and the increasingly desperate contingent of Republicans who want to move on from Mr. Trump.

While Iowa was largely a foregone conclusion at the top, with a spirited battle only for second place, a small but ever narrowing path still exists for Ms. Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, to beat Mr. Trump in New Hampshire. It relies heavily on tens of thousands of independent voters expected to participate in the Republican primary.

Ms. Haley, who got a late start in Iowa, has from the beginning banked her campaign on a strong showing in New Hampshire, and has recently been buoyed by an influx of cash from the super PAC supporting her. The demographic makeup of the state is also much more favorable to her than the more rural and conservative Iowa. She has invested significant money and time here — holding 80 events in the state — and has the support of some its top Republicans, including the popular governor, Chris Sununu.

“She’s on the ground, she’s in the diner, she’s doing the town halls,” Mr. Sununu said. “She’s answering anybody’s questions. Trump’s not doing that. You’re lucky to get him to fly in once a week to do a rally and then get the heck out of there.”

Mr. Trump, however, demonstrated his enduring strength in Iowa, easily winning the caucuses with 35 percent of the vote. Ms. Haley finished a distant second with 4 percent, behind Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, with 20 percent, and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, with 18 percent.

The results were a blow to Ms. Haley’s hopes of consolidating the anti-Trump vote, and she now faces an even steeper challenge in New Hampshire, where Mr. Trump remains popular with Republican voters.

“I think it’s going to be very difficult for her to win,” said David Carney, a veteran New Hampshire Republican strategist. “Trump is very strong here, and Haley is not well-known.”

But Ms. Haley’s campaign is banking on the fact that New Hampshire is a more moderate state than Iowa, and that independent voters, who can participate in either the Republican or Democratic primary, could play a decisive role.

“New Hampshire is a different state than Iowa,” said Tim Pawlenty, a former governor of Minnesota who ran for president in 2012. “It’s a more moderate state, and there are a lot more independent voters. Haley has a chance to do well here if she can appeal to those voters.”

Ms. Haley has been trying to do just that, emphasizing her ability to work across party lines and her focus on issues like education and health care. She has also been critical of Mr. Trump, calling him a “bully” and a “threat to our democracy.”

But Mr. Trump has fired back, calling Ms. Haley a “lightweight” and a “phony.” He has also accused her of being a “warmonger” and a “flip-flopper.”

The race in New Hampshire is likely to be close, and the outcome could have a significant impact on the Republican race. If Ms. Haley can win, it would give her a much-needed boost and make her a more viable challenger to Mr. Trump. But if Mr. Trump wins, it would be a major setback for Ms. Haley and the other Republicans who are trying to stop him.

The New Hampshire primary will be held on Tuesday, Feb. 11.