2024: Predictions for the Advertising and Media Industry
Introduction
As 2023 draws to a close, industry experts and analysts eagerly make predictions about the trends and developments they anticipate in the advertising and media landscape. However, these forecasts often fall short, proving either overly cautious or wildly inaccurate. In this comprehensive report, we take a contrarian approach, presenting our informed and well-researched perspectives on what we believe will not happen in 2024, challenging conventional wisdom and highlighting potential misconceptions.
1. Publishers Won’t See Immediate Gains from the Collapse of Third-Party Tracking
With the widespread adoption of privacy regulations and the phasing out of third-party cookies, many publishers had high hopes that they would regain control over their audiences and profit from their data. However, this transition is not a guaranteed win, at least not in the short term.
The industry is still grappling with numerous challenges, including the lack of consensus on a unified approach to tracking without third-party cookies. Furthermore, the true value of authenticated IDs, which rely on user consent within a publisher’s domain, remains uncertain. As a result, publishers may have to wait longer before they can fully capitalize on the demise of third-party tracking.
2. A U.S. Federal Privacy Law and Privacy Sandbox Delivery Remain Uncertain
Despite ongoing discussions and efforts, it is unlikely that a comprehensive U.S. federal privacy law or Google’s Privacy Sandbox will materialize in 2024. This delay will continue to create frustration within the industry, especially among publishers and advertisers concerned about data privacy and regulation.
The complex political landscape and the upcoming U.S. general election in 2024 make it challenging to achieve bipartisan support for a national privacy legislation. Lobbying efforts may continue into 2025, further prolonging the uncertainty surrounding data privacy regulations.
Google’s Privacy Sandbox, an experimental platform designed to replace third-party cookies, has also faced criticism and opposition from various stakeholders. Publishers have expressed concerns about the feasibility of meeting the proposed integration deadline, potentially leading to delays in its implementation.
3. Marketers Won’t Prioritize Media Transparency
Despite the industry’s increasing focus on media quality and journalism, marketers have been slow to address issues of media transparency and programmatic advertising waste. While some high-profile cases have garnered attention, such as the ANA’s investigation into the programmatic supply chain, widespread change remains elusive.
Marketers often turn a blind eye to these issues or lack the knowledge and resources to understand their impact. As a result, media transparency continues to take a backseat to other pressing concerns, such as the decline of third-party cookies and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI).
4. Amazon Won’t Dominate Retail Media
For years, Amazon has been the undisputed leader in retail media, capturing a significant portion of advertising dollars. However, this dominance is facing challenges, and 2024 will further emphasize this shift.
More advertising dollars will flow into competitors like Walmart, Kroger, Instacart, and others. This diversification will have ripple effects, including changes in labor implications, portfolio allocation, the need for expertise, media spending patterns, and uncertainty about the ultimate leaders in this evolving landscape.
The merging of e-commerce and marketing teams within companies signals a trend toward closer collaboration and integration, further challenging Amazon’s monopoly in retail media.
5. Netflix Won’t Capture a Significant Share of TV Ad Dollars
Despite initial excitement and anticipation, Netflix’s foray into advertising has been underwhelming. The first year of Netflix ads failed to generate significant revenue, and the platform’s limited audience and cautious approach have limited its appeal to advertisers.
Even as Netflix plans to expand its ad offerings with private marketplaces and new formats, it is unlikely to make a major impact on the TV ad market in 2024. The cautious tone from the first round of ads is likely to continue, preventing Netflix from becoming a major player in the TV advertising space.
6. Big Advertisers Won’t Return to Twitter
Since Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter in 2022, the platform has faced numerous controversies and challenges, leading to a mass exodus of major advertisers. Despite efforts to smooth relationships with advertisers, Musk’s actions and statements have made it difficult for brands to maintain their connections.
Concerns regarding brand safety, antisemitism, and misinformation on the platform have further eroded advertiser confidence. The departure of Linda Yaccarino, a prominent media executive hired to improve relationships with advertisers, underscores the depth of the challenges facing Twitter.
7. Apple Won’t Launch a Demand-Supply Platform (DSP)
Despite rumors and speculation, Apple is unlikely to launch a DSP in 2024. The company is cautious about entering the ad tech market, especially given the regulatory uncertainty surrounding Google’s dominant position in the industry.
Apple’s slow and steady approach to search ads is indicative of its conservative strategy. While the company has assembled teams and developed technology to potentially enter the search ad market, it is unlikely to become a major competitor to Google anytime soon.
Apple’s focus on necessity rather than greed suggests that it will only enter the ad tech market if compelled by regulatory or competitive pressures. Until then, the company is content with its existing revenue streams and market share.
Conclusion
In this report, we have presented our predictions for what will not happen in the advertising and media industry in 2024. These predictions challenge conventional wisdom and highlight potential misconceptions or overhyped expectations. By understanding these unlikely scenarios, stakeholders can make more informed decisions and strategies for the coming year.