Allan Lichtman’s Election Prediction Method
In the high-stakes world of presidential politics, predicting the outcome of an election is no easy feat. But for renowned historian Allan Lichtman, it’s a game he’s mastered, having accurately forecasted nine out of ten presidential elections since 1984.
Historical Context
Lichtman’s extraordinary success stems from his groundbreaking method, which draws inspiration from the realm of plate tectonics. Just as earthquakes can be predicted by analyzing patterns in the earth’s crust, Lichtman believes that American history and politics follow discernible patterns that can be harnessed to forecast electoral outcomes.
Development of the Method
In 1981, Lichtman embarked on a collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, an earthquake specialist from Moscow. Together, they delved into the annals of American presidential elections from 1860 to 1980. Using advanced pattern recognition techniques, they identified 13 key factors that they believed influenced the outcome of each election.
The 13 Keys
These 13 “Keys to the White House” fall into three categories: political, performance, and personality.
Political Keys
- Party Contest: Primary challenges within the incumbent party
- Mandate: Party performance in midterm elections
Performance Keys
- Short-term Economy
- Long-term Economy
- Incumbent Charisma
- Incumbent Scandals
- Incumbent Accomplishments
- Failure in Foreign Policy
- Success in Foreign Policy
Personality Keys
- Candidate Charisma
- Candidate Scandals
The central tenet of Lichtman’s method is the “six-key decision rule.” According to this rule, the incumbent party is poised to lose the White House if they lose at least six of these 13 keys.
Allan Lichtman’s Election Prediction Method: Unraveling the 2024 Crystal Ball
Biden’s Current Standing: Two Keys Down, Four Shaky
Despite his initial triumphs, President Biden’s grip on the White House appears to be loosening. Lichtman’s 13 Keys reveal that Biden has already lost two: mandate, due to the disappointing 2022 midterm results, and incumbent charisma, as his approval ratings continue to hover below 50%.
However, the real suspense lies in four additional keys that are currently on shaky ground: third-party, social unrest, success in foreign policy, and failure in foreign policy. Biden’s handling of these issues will be crucial in determining his fate in 2024.
Keys to Watch: Third-Party and Social Unrest
The rise of third-party candidates and social unrest could pose significant threats to Biden’s reelection. In 2016, third-party candidates siphoned off enough votes to sway the election in Trump’s favor. Similarly, social unrest, such as widespread protests or civil disobedience, can create an atmosphere of instability that favors change.
Foreign Policy: A Double-Edged Sword
Biden’s success or failure in foreign policy will also play a pivotal role. A major diplomatic triumph, such as brokering a peace deal or resolving a global crisis, could boost his popularity and secure the success in foreign policy key. Conversely, a significant foreign policy blunder, like a military misadventure or a diplomatic fiasco, could shatter public confidence and trigger the failure in foreign policy key.
Conclusion: Governance Over Campaigning
Lichtman emphasizes that the key to electoral success lies not solely in slick campaigning but in effective governance. Biden’s ability to address the challenges facing the nation, including the economy, social unrest, and foreign policy, will ultimately determine his chances of retaining the White House in 2024.
As the political landscape continues to shift, Lichtman’s 13 Keys provide a valuable framework for assessing the electoral prospects of incumbent presidents. By keeping a close watch on these key indicators, we can gain insights into the forces shaping American politics and the potential outcomes of future elections.