Inflation Report April 2024: Is That All You Got, Inflation?

Well folks, it seems like inflation is the unwelcome guest who just won’t take the hint. It’s still hanging around like that last piece of pizza in the fridge – you know it’s not good for you, but you kinda wanna see what happens if it stays there a little longer (spoiler alert: it’s never a good outcome).

What’s the Deal with April’s Inflation Report?

The latest inflation report dropped like it always does, and guess what? It’s basically the same song and dance as last month. Inflation is still being a real pain, holding steady at March’s rate. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index – that’s the Fed’s favorite inflation tracker, in case you were wondering – nudged up a teeny tiny bit (like, .% from March), landing at an annual rate of .%.

And hey, remember “core” PCE? That’s the one where they ditch the wild-child prices of food and energy. It inched up a smidge too, hitting .% for the month and chilling at .% for the year. Basically, the Fed’s masterplan to wrestle inflation to the ground? Yeah, it’s gonna need a few more rounds.

Hold Up, Let’s Break Those Prices Down

Okay, so the overall picture is kinda meh, but let’s dig into the nitty-gritty. Good news first: food prices actually took a chill pill this month, which is a win for our wallets (and our stomachs). But before you do your happy dance, remember those gas prices we talked about? Yeah, they’re still climbing like a cat in a tree, up a whole .% this month.

Now, let’s talk services inflation – you know, the stuff we pay for like haircuts and dog walkers (because who has time to walk the dog when you’re busy reading about inflation?). That’s still giving economists a bit of a side-eye, clocking in at .% for the year. Goods inflation, on the other hand, decided to be a bit more predictable, staying pretty darn flat at .%.

What Are the Experts Saying?

You think you’re surprised by all this? Economists had this whole thing pegged – they basically called it, predicting that April would be a repeat of March. Steven Ricchiuto, a big-shot economist over at Mizuho Securities USA, says the crazy-competitive job market is partly to blame for inflation’s stubborn streak.

And Chris Rupkey, another economist whiz (seriously, these guys know their stuff) from FwdBonds, is like that friend who reminds you not to get too cocky. He’s saying even though core PCE dipped a tad, we gotta keep our eyes on the prize – which, in this case, is getting inflation under control.

Inflation Report April 2024: Is That All You Got, Inflation?

Well folks, it seems like inflation is the unwelcome guest who just won’t take the hint. It’s still hanging around like that last piece of pizza in the fridge – you know it’s not good for you, but you kinda wanna see what happens if it stays there a little longer (spoiler alert: it’s never a good outcome).

What’s the Deal with April’s Inflation Report?

The latest inflation report dropped like it always does, and guess what? It’s basically the same song and dance as last month. Inflation is still being a real pain, holding steady at March’s rate. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index – that’s the Fed’s favorite inflation tracker, in case you were wondering – nudged up a teeny tiny bit (like, 0.3% from March), landing at an annual rate of 2.7%.

And hey, remember “core” PCE? That’s the one where they ditch the wild-child prices of food and energy. It inched up a smidge too, hitting 0.2% for the month and chilling at 2.8% for the year. Basically, the Fed’s masterplan to wrestle inflation to the ground? Yeah, it’s gonna need a few more rounds.

Hold Up, Let’s Break Those Prices Down

Okay, so the overall picture is kinda meh, but let’s dig into the nitty-gritty. Good news first: food prices actually took a chill pill this month, which is a win for our wallets (and our stomachs). But before you do your happy dance, remember those gas prices we talked about? Yeah, they’re still climbing like a cat in a tree, up a whole 1.2% this month.

Now, let’s talk services inflation – you know, the stuff we pay for like haircuts and dog walkers (because who has time to walk the dog when you’re busy reading about inflation?). That’s still giving economists a bit of a side-eye, clocking in at 3.9% for the year. Goods inflation, on the other hand, decided to be a bit more predictable, staying pretty darn flat at 0.1%.

What Are the Experts Saying?

You think you’re surprised by all this? Economists had this whole thing pegged – they basically called it, predicting that April would be a repeat of March. Steven Ricchiuto, a big-shot economist over at Mizuho Securities USA, says the crazy-competitive job market is partly to blame for inflation’s stubborn streak.

And Chris Rupkey, another economist whiz (seriously, these guys know their stuff) from FwdBonds, is like that friend who reminds you not to get too cocky. He’s saying even though core PCE dipped a tad, we gotta keep our eyes on the prize – which, in this case, is getting inflation under control.

How Did People React?

The Biden administration, never one to miss a chance to talk economics, chimed in with a “Hey, at least it’s not getting worse!” They’re focusing on the positive (we see you, spin doctors), pointing out that core inflation is at its lowest point since March 2021 and that overall inflation has dropped a whopping 60% from its peak.

Lael Brainard, a big name in the economics world, stepped up to the mic too. She basically said, “We’re doing our best, guys!” and emphasized the whole “lowering costs for families” thing. Oh, and she threw a little shade at Republicans about tax cuts for the wealthy, because what’s a good economic discussion without a little political jab, right?

Is Inflation the Only Thing Happening in the Economy?

Nope, the economy’s a wild ride, remember? Consumer spending decided to hit the brakes in April, inching up a measly 0.2% compared to March’s much more impressive 0.7%. Disposable income, that sweet, sweet money we have left after taxes, also took a breather, growing by a mere 0.2% compared to March’s 0.5%.

But here’s the kicker – adjust for inflation (because, you know, that’s kinda important), and both spending and disposable incomes actually fell by 0.1%. Ouch. And that personal saving rate? Hanging out at a low 3.6%. Yikes.

So, What’s Next for the Economy?

Well, buckle up, buttercup, because April’s data is basically a big, flashing neon sign saying, “Economic slowdown ahead!” Remember those retail sales we talked about earlier? Yeah, they were pretty flat too. Kathy Bostjanic, an economic guru over at Nationwide, thinks we’re in for more of the same – slow income growth, cautious spending, the whole nine yards.

But hey, there might be a silver lining (we’re all about optimism here!). Michael Pearce, another one of those economist brainiacs from Oxford Economics, suggests that if spending keeps being a drag, the Fed might just whip out the big guns – rate cuts. Of course, they’ll probably need a few more months of “meh” economic reports before they make that call.

Let’s Wrap This Up: Key Takeaways from the April Inflation Report

• Inflation: It’s like that annoying song you can’t get out of your head – it’s still here, folks.
• The Fed’s plan to tame inflation? It’s a work in progress (to put it nicely).
• Food prices went down, gas prices went up – it’s a wash, really.
• The economy seems to be taking a chill pill, which could lead to rate cuts down the line (fingers crossed!).

So, there you have it – the April inflation report in a nutshell. Stay tuned for next month’s episode, where we’ll see if inflation finally gets the boot or decides to overstay its welcome a little longer.