The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs: A Rematch for the AFC Championship
On January 29, 2024, the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs will face off in a highly anticipated AFC Championship game, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. This matchup marks the Ravens’ first appearance in the AFC Championship game in over a decade, while the Chiefs are making their sixth consecutive appearance in the conference title game.
Betting Lines and Odds:
The Ravens enter the game as four-point favorites at home, having won their divisional round matchup by a commanding 24-point margin. Meanwhile, the Chiefs secured their spot in the AFC Championship game with a convincing victory over the Miami Dolphins in Round 1, followed by a hard-fought win against the Buffalo Bills on the road last week.
Player Prop Bets to Consider:
1. Lamar Jackson Longest Rush Over 17.5 Yards (-110):
Lamar Jackson has been in scintillating form, showcasing his dynamic running ability. In the divisional round matchup against the Texans, he accumulated 100 rushing yards on just 11 carries, including two touchdowns. Jackson’s elusiveness and speed pose a significant threat to the Chiefs’ defense.
The Chiefs’ run defense, while solid, has shown some vulnerabilities. They allowed nearly 2,000 total rushing yards during the regular season, and opponents averaged 4.5 yards per carry against them. Given Jackson’s recent performances and his success against the Chiefs in the past, taking the over on his longest rush projection of 17.5 yards seems like a promising bet.
2. Odell Beckham Jr. Over 20.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115):
Odell Beckham Jr.’s usage in the Ravens’ offense has fluctuated in recent games, with his targets decreasing in the past several contests. However, this high-stakes matchup could provide an opportunity for Beckham to shine.
Beckham’s over/under yardage projection has dropped to 20.5, significantly lower than earlier in the season. While the Ravens’ offense has been humming in Andrews’ absence, Beckham’s experience and playmaking ability cannot be overlooked.
Taking the over on Beckham’s combined rushing and receiving yards prop, which is also set at 20.5 yards, offers slightly better value at -115 compared to the receiving yards prop alone.
3. Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+215):
Mark Andrews, the Ravens’ All-Pro tight end, is set to make his highly anticipated return to the field against the Chiefs. Andrews has been sidelined since November 16 due to a significant ankle injury, raising questions about his workload and role in the offense.
While Andrews’ workload may be limited in his return game, his presence alone poses a significant threat to the Chiefs’ defense. Jackson has consistently relied on Andrews as his go-to target in crucial situations, particularly on third downs and in the red zone.
Betting on Andrews to find the end zone carries great value at +215. The home crowd will be ecstatic to see Andrews back in action, and a touchdown from him would be a storybook moment with a high probability of occurring.
4. Isiah Pacheco Over 13.5 Attempts (-145):
Isiah Pacheco has emerged as a key player for the Chiefs late in the season, playing a pivotal role in both of their playoff games. The former seventh-round pick has rushed for 89+ yards in five of the past seven games and scored a touchdown in all but two of these games.
The Chiefs have shown a commitment to establishing the run and giving Pacheco a consistent workload. Since November 5, Pacheco has carried the ball 15 or more times in all but one game. While he is listed as questionable for the AFC Championship game due to a toe injury, signs indicate that he will suit up.
Considering Pacheco’s recent performances, the Chiefs’ commitment to the run, and the Ravens’ willingness to concede some production on the ground to prevent Patrick Mahomes from causing significant damage through the air, betting on Pacheco’s over attempts projection of 13.5 seems like a solid choice.
Conclusion:
The AFC Championship game between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs promises to be an enthralling matchup between two of the most dynamic offenses in the league. The player prop bets highlighted in this analysis provide intriguing opportunities for bettors to capitalize on the individual performances of key players in this high-stakes contest.