The Pick Six Newsletter: Divisional Round Recap and Championship Game Previews
January 23, 2024
Biggest Questions After the Divisional Round
The Divisional Round of the playoffs delivered excitement, drama, and a few surprises. As we head into the conference championship round, several questions linger, leaving football fans on the edge of their seats.
Is the Bills’ Championship Window Closed?
The Buffalo Bills, despite their impressive regular season, fell short in the Divisional Round, losing 27-24 to the Kansas City Chiefs. This defeat has raised concerns about the team’s ability to win a Super Bowl. With several key players set to hit free agency in 2024 and limited cap space, the Bills’ championship window may be closing.
Are the Chiefs Now the Team to Beat in the Playoffs?
With both top seeds, the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers, advancing to the conference title round, it may seem surprising to consider the Chiefs as the team to beat. However, their impressive playoff performances and status as the defending champions make them a formidable opponent.
Which Team Has a Brighter Future: Packers or Texans?
Both the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans appear to have found franchise quarterbacks in Jordan Love and Bryce Young, respectively. This has led to a debate about which team has a brighter future. With the Texans playing in a weaker division, they could potentially win more division titles than the Packers in the NFC North over the next five years.
Breaking Down the Divisional Round
The Divisional Round featured four exciting matchups that kept fans on the edge of their seats. Let’s recap each game and highlight the key moments:
(1) Ravens 34 – (4) Texans 10
The Baltimore Ravens dominated the Houston Texans in the second half, outscoring them 24-0 and limiting Houston to just three points on offense. Lamar Jackson led the charge with four total touchdowns and 100 rushing yards.
(1) 49ers 24 – (7) Packers 21
After controlling the game through the first three quarters, the Packers collapsed in the fourth quarter, failing to score any points and committing several turnovers. Christian McCaffrey once again showcased his dominance with 128 total yards and two touchdowns.
(3) Lions 31 – (4) Buccaneers 23
The Detroit Lions’ offense struggled early, but Jahmyr Gibbs sparked their comeback in the second half. Jared Goff also played a crucial role, completing 11 of 12 passes in the fourth quarter. Baker Mayfield’s impressive performance, including 349 passing yards and three touchdowns, was ultimately not enough to overcome the Lions’ defense.
(3) Chiefs 27 – (2) Bills 24
In his first road playoff game, Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to victory, throwing for 215 yards and two touchdowns. Isiah Pacheco contributed 15 carries for 97 yards and a touchdown. The Bills’ special teams made costly mistakes, including a failed fake punt and a missed field goal that could have tied the game.
Overreactions and Reality Checks
In the wake of the Divisional Round, there have been plenty of overreactions and hot takes. Let’s separate the facts from the fiction:
Statement: Tyler Bass Cost the Bills the Game
Overreaction or Reality: Overreaction
While Bass’ missed field goal was a crucial moment, the Bills’ loss cannot be solely attributed to him. Stefon Diggs’ drops and special teams miscues also played significant roles in their defeat.
Statement: All the Pressure Is Now on the Ravens in the AFC Title Game
Overreaction or Reality: Reality
The Ravens face significant pressure as they host the AFC Championship Game for the first time. While Mahomes has more experience in such situations, this is Jackson’s best chance at reaching the Super Bowl.
Statement: Baker Mayfield Deserves to Be Paid Like a Top-10 QB
Overreaction or Reality: Reality
Mayfield’s performance this season, particularly under the guidance of offensive coordinator Dave Canales, warrants a contract extension and a salary in the top 10 among quarterbacks.
13 Crazy Stats from the Divisional Round
The Divisional Round provided plenty of memorable moments and jaw-dropping statistics. Here are 13 crazy stats that caught our attention:
1. The 49ers are making their 19th NFC title game appearance since 1970, a record and four more than any other NFC team.
2. The Chiefs have advanced to their sixth straight conference title game, the second-longest streak in NFL history, behind only the Patriots’ eight consecutive appearances from 2011 to 2018.
3. With their win over the Packers, the 49ers tied the Patriots and Packers for the most playoff wins in NFL history, with 37.
4. Kyle Shanahan ended his 0-31 streak with the 49ers when trailing by five or more points entering the fourth quarter, overcoming a seven-point deficit against the Packers.
5. Lamar Jackson became the first player in NFL history to rush for 100 yards, have a passer rating over 100, and record two passing and two rushing touchdowns in a playoff game.
6. The Ravens will host the AFC Championship Game for the first time in franchise history.
7. The Lions’ two postseason wins this year surpass their combined playoff victories in every other season in the Super Bowl era.
8. The Lions need to end two long streaks to reach the Super Bowl: they haven’t won a road game against the 49ers since 1975 and haven’t won a road playoff game since 1957.
9. The Lions’ victory over the Buccaneers marked Jared Goff’s 14th win of the season, making him the third quarterback in history to lead multiple teams to 14 wins in a single season.
10. Josh Allen’s 72 rushing yards against the Chiefs moved him past Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson for the second-most rushing yards by a quarterback in NFL history, trailing only Steve Young.
11. Allen’s two rushing touchdowns gave him a total of 18 this season, tying him with Jalen Hurts for the most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in NFL history.
12. Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker’s nine points against the Bills brought his career postseason total to 140, surpassing Jerry Rice for sixth place in NFL history.
13. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce’s two touchdown connections against the Bills moved them ahead of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski for the most scoring connections in NFL postseason history, with 16 touchdowns.
Early Odds for the AFC and NFC Title Games
The Divisional Round set the stage for two highly anticipated conference championship games. Here are the early odds for each matchup:
Sunday, January 28
(3) Chiefs at (1) Ravens, 3 p.m. ET (CBS)
Current point spread: Ravens -3.5
The Ravens and Chiefs will face off in a monumental showdown, with Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes leading their respective offenses. The game is expected to be a defensive battle, considering both teams allowed the fewest points in the league this season.
Sunday, January 28
(3) Lions at (1) 49ers, 6:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
Current point spread: 49ers -6.5
The Lions aim to reach the Super Bowl for the first time in their franchise history, but they face significant challenges. They haven’t won a road playoff game since 1957 and haven’t won a road game against the 49ers since 1975. The Lions’ ability to stop the pass will be crucial, as the 49ers have one of the league’s most potent passing offenses. Deebo Samuel’s health will also be a factor, with his status for the NFC Championship Game uncertain due to a shoulder injury.
Extra Points: Lions to Sign Three-Time Pro Bowler
The Lions made a significant move by signing three-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Jarvis Landry to a one-year contract. Landry brings valuable experience and playmaking ability to the Lions’ offense, bolstering their receiving corps.