Box Office Outlook: Bob Marley: One Love, Madame Web, and The Chosen Set for Valentine’s Day Weekend

With Valentine’s Day falling on a Wednesday in 2024, movie studios are aiming to capitalize on the long holiday weekend, bookended by Presidents Day on the following Monday. Three films are vying for attention during this romantic and patriotic stretch: Bob Marley: One Love, Madame Web, and The Chosen.

Bob Marley: One Love

Paramount Pictures’ Bob Marley: One Love, a biopic chronicling the life and music of the legendary reggae icon, is poised to resonate with audiences during the hopeful and celebratory Valentine’s Day frame. Marley’s uplifting music and life-affirming philosophies could provide a welcome respite from the challenges of the pandemic era.

Box Office Projections

• 3-Day FSS Opening Weekend Range: $11 million – $16 million
• Domestic Total Range: $35 million – $69 million

Pros and Cons

Pros:

• Biopics can be appealing to audiences seeking uplifting and inspiring stories.
• Marley’s music and life-affirming philosophies have a broad appeal.
• The long holiday weekend provides an opportunity for increased ticket sales.

Cons:

• Biopics have become more common on streaming platforms, potentially reducing theatrical appeal.
• The target audience, older adults, may be more selective about which films they see in theaters.

Madame Web

Sony/Columbia Pictures’ Madame Web, a superhero film based on the Marvel Comics character of the same name, is expected to attract comic book fans during its Valentine’s Day debut. The film’s star power, including Sydney Sweeney, who gained popularity from the sleeper success of Anyone But You, could further boost its appeal. However, the film faces the challenge of establishing itself in a post-pandemic market where comic book movies are no longer a guaranteed box office draw.

Box Office Projections

• 3-Day FSS Opening Weekend Range: $25 million – $35 million
• Domestic Total Range: $56 million – $101 million

Pros and Cons

Pros:

• Comic book movies have a large and passionate fan base.
• The film’s star power, including Sydney Sweeney, could attract a wider audience.
• The Valentine’s Day release date aligns with the film’s romantic elements.

Cons:

• Comic book movies no longer have the same automatic appeal as they did pre-pandemic.
• The character Madame Web is less familiar to general audiences, requiring effective marketing.
• The early marketing campaign has generated mixed reactions online.

The Chosen

The Chosen, a faith-based television series, has consistently drawn its core audience to theaters for episode debuts. While the middle chapters of a season may not generate the same urgency as premieres or finales, the franchise’s loyal fanbase is likely to turn out for these non-premiere and non-finale episodes.

Box Office Projections

• 3-Day FSS Opening Weekend Range: $7 million – $11 million
• Domestic Total Range: $11 million – $18 million

Pros and Cons

Pros:

• The series has a loyal fan base that consistently turns out for episode debuts in theaters.
• The faith-based audience is known for its strong support of faith-based films.

Cons:

• Middle chapters of a season may not generate the same urgency as premieres or finales.
• Some fans may prefer to watch the episodes at home rather than in theaters.

Long Range Box Office Forecast

Looking beyond the Valentine’s Day weekend, the upcoming 2024 release calendar features a diverse range of films, including Miller’s Girl, Underdoggs, The Concierge, Housekeeping for Beginners, Argylle, Scrambled, 2 Win, Lisa Frankenstein, The Origin, Turning Red, and The Chosen: Season 4 (Episodes 4-6). These films span various genres, from romantic comedies to action-packed thrillers, offering something for every audience.

Conclusion

The Valentine’s Day weekend in 2024 promises a mix of uplifting biopics, superhero adventures, and faith-based dramas, catering to diverse audience preferences. While the box office outcomes for Bob Marley: One Love, Madame Web, and The Chosen remain uncertain, the long holiday weekend and the films’ unique appeal could contribute to their success.