Climate Diplomacy’s Dynamic Duo: The Xie-Kerry Legacy

A Pivotal Relationship in Climate Negotiations

As the world grapples with the pressing challenge of climate change, the recently concluded Cop28 UN climate summit marked a significant turning point. Amidst the bustling venue in Dubai, a private gathering held particular significance: the celebration of US presidential envoy for climate John Kerry’s 80th birthday, attended by his esteemed Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua. This heartwarming occasion underscored the remarkable personal relationship between these two seasoned diplomats, a relationship that has profoundly shaped the global climate stage.

Kerry and Xie, both octogenarians, have been instrumental in climate negotiations since before the landmark 2015 Paris agreement. Their dedication and tireless efforts have earned them widespread recognition as pivotal figures in the fight against climate change. However, as they step down from their respective roles, the world reflects on the profound impact of their collaboration and the challenges that lie ahead.

Forging US-China Collaboration on Climate Action

The world’s two largest emitters, China and the United States, hold immense responsibility in determining the planet’s future. With China contributing approximately 30% and the US accounting for about 14% of global carbon dioxide emissions, their actions carry significant weight. Historically, relations between these countries have been strained, marked by rivalry and competition. However, Kerry and Xie’s close personal relationship has facilitated a remarkable US-China collaboration on climate action.

This collaboration has been pivotal in reshaping the global economy, driving down costs for renewable energy technologies, and promoting a transition towards a greener future. Yet, it has also presented challenges and obstacles to climate progress. At times, China’s heavy reliance on coal and its resistance to certain climate commitments have hindered collective action.

Praise and Criticism: Navigating a Complex Landscape

Both China and the United States have faced both praise and criticism for their climate actions. China’s massive investments in wind, solar, and electric vehicles have been lauded, while its continued dependence on coal has drawn criticism. The US, on the other hand, has been commended for its role in securing the Paris agreement and its recent green investment initiatives, but its ramped-up oil and gas production and failure to provide adequate climate finance have also been met with disapproval.

Critics argue that the claims of climate leadership by both countries ring hollow when they continue to invest in fossil fuels. Mohamed Adow, director of the Power Shift Africa thinktank, expressed disappointment with the US’s resistance to the loss and damage fund and its overall role as a blocker of progressive climate agreements.

A Legacy of Cooperation Amidst Diplomatic Tensions

Despite the challenges and criticisms, the Xie-Kerry relationship has undoubtedly yielded significant dividends for climate talks. For much of the past decade, with the exception of Donald Trump’s presidency, Kerry and Xie have spearheaded their countries’ climate engagement, transforming it into an arena for cooperation. Their deep understanding of the climate crisis, political acumen, and personal rapport have played a pivotal role in driving climate action forward.

The warm relationship between Kerry and Xie was evident at Cop28, where the US and Chinese delegations were strategically housed near each other, facilitating impromptu meetings and mutual delight. However, signs of fatigue have also been apparent, with both men showing the strain of their tireless efforts.

The Road Ahead: Critical Juncture and Uncertainties

As Kerry and Xie exit the climate stage, the world finds itself at a critical juncture. The looming US presidential election, with the potential return of Donald Trump, poses a significant threat to US climate action. Meanwhile, China’s continued deployment of low-carbon technology and its desire for global leadership on climate offer both opportunities and challenges.

The successor to Xie Zhenhua is likely to be Liu Zhenmin, a top diplomat with a keen interest in climate issues. The Biden administration has yet to indicate who will replace Kerry, leaving uncertainty about the future of US climate diplomacy.

Paul Bledsoe, a former Clinton White House climate adviser, emphasizes the importance of the Kerry/Xie relationship as a model for their governments. He urges their successors to build upon their legacy and work together to reduce emissions and promote greater climate cooperation, preventing global destabilization and climate calamity.