Finland Elects New President Amidst Changing Geopolitical Landscape

On January 28, 2024, Finland embarked on a pivotal democratic exercise, electing a new president in an era of unprecedented transformation. This election marked a historic juncture, occurring amidst Finland’s recent accession to NATO and the closure of its eastern border with Russia, developments that were scarcely conceivable just a few years ago.

Electoral Dynamics

Polling stations across Finland opened at 9 a.m. (0700 GMT) and remained open until 8 p.m. (1800 GMT). Unlike most European countries, the Finnish president wields significant executive power in formulating foreign and security policy, particularly in interactions with non-European Union countries such as the United States, Russia, and China. Additionally, the president serves as the supreme commander of the Finnish military, a role of heightened importance in the current European security context.

Array of Candidates

Approximately 4.5 million eligible voters were tasked with selecting a successor to President Sauli Niinistö, whose second six-year term was set to expire in March and who was ineligible for re-election. Nine candidates, comprising six men and three women, contested the presidency, representing a diverse range of political affiliations and backgrounds.

Leading Contenders

Given the fragmented political landscape, no candidate was anticipated to secure a majority in the first round of voting, necessitating a runoff election in February. Recent polls indicated that former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb and ex-Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto were the frontrunners in the race.

Geopolitical Context

Finland’s new head of state will assume office in March, inheriting a markedly different geo-political and security landscape in Europe compared to President Niinistö’s inauguration following the 2018 election. The nation’s abandonment of decades-long military non-alignment in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to its accession to NATO in April 2023, a move that drew the ire of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Finland’s membership in NATO, which positioned it as the Western military alliance’s frontline country towards Russia, coupled with the ongoing war in Ukraine, has elevated the president’s role as a security policy leader.

Campaign Dynamics

In keeping with Finland’s tradition of consensus-oriented politics, the months-long campaign period transpired smoothly, with candidates demonstrating broad agreement on major foreign policy issues. All candidates expressed alignment on Finland’s future policies towards Russia, the enhancement of security cooperation with the United States, and the continuation of military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.

NATO Membership and Arctic Security

Pekka Haavisto, a Green League member running as an independent candidate, emphasized the significance of NATO’s expansion into the Arctic region. He stated that Finland’s and Sweden’s membership in the alliance would bolster its strength in the Arctic, a strategically crucial area. Haavisto played a pivotal role in Finland’s historic accession to NATO, having signed the accession treaty as foreign minister in 2023.

Sweden’s Impending NATO Membership

Finland’s western neighbor, Sweden, was poised to join NATO in the near future, with Hungary, the sole remaining holdout, expected to ratify Stockholm’s bid by the end of February. This development would complete the Nordic region’s integration into the Western military alliance.

Election Timeline and Results

Advance vote results were anticipated shortly after the polls closed, with initial results from Sunday’s voting expected around midnight (2200 GMT). The first-round results would be officially confirmed on Tuesday. The likely second round of voting between the two candidates with the most votes was scheduled for February 11.

Conclusion

Finland’s presidential election unfolded against a backdrop of profound geo-political shifts, reflecting the nation’s evolving role in European security. The outcome of the election would have far-reaching implications for Finland’s foreign policy and its position within NATO.