Good Sunday Evening, Everyone: Navigating the First Alert Weather Day

Introduction

Hey folks, Nicolette here with an update on our First Alert Weather Day for Monday. We’ve been enjoying a welcome reprieve from the bone-chilling cold, with today’s temps hovering near or slightly above freezing. But the main event is brewing out west, and we’re keeping a close eye on a significant storm system approaching from the Rockies.

First Alert Weather Day and Winter Weather Advisories

We issued the First Alert Weather Day mid-last week, as early signs pointed to potential ice accumulation on Monday morning. And guess what? Precipitation activity might start sneaking into the western Ozarks as early as tonight. To be on the safe side, a winter weather advisory is in effect for most of the Ozarks until 3 PM Monday. Additionally, an ice storm warning has been issued for Washington, Madison, and Newton counties in northwest Arkansas, also expiring at 3 PM Monday. These ice storm warnings are mainly for the higher elevations of the Boston Mountains, where ice accumulations could reach a quarter to half an inch.

Anticipated Weather Patterns

Tonight, we’re expecting a dry spell. But as the clock strikes 8 or 9, radar returns might show freezing rain and isolated sleet trying to sneak into the western Ozarks. This precipitation will saturate the lower levels of the atmosphere, making way for sleet pellets and light freezing rain. As the night goes on, more moisture will spread across the Ozarks, bringing intermittent periods of freezing drizzle and light to moderate freezing rain.

By 6 AM Monday, road conditions will likely deteriorate, making the morning commute a bit tricky. So, if you have to hit the road, take it slow, give yourself extra time, and be extra cautious.

Transition to Rain and Expected Ice Totals

The good news is, things should start improving later Monday morning and into the afternoon. Temperatures in parts of the central and western Ozarks are expected to rise above freezing during this time, turning that freezing rain into plain old rain. The southeastern Ozarks, however, might see some additional freezing rain in the early afternoon. But even there, the rain will take over as air temperatures climb above freezing between 3 PM and 6 PM.

As for ice totals, we’ve made some minor adjustments to our map. The southeastern Ozarks are still expected to see the most accumulation, with an average of 0.1 to 0.2 inches of ice. Higher elevations in the southeastern Ozarks could see up to 0.30 inches. Most areas should see a glaze to 0.20 inches of ice before the transition to rain. While widespread power outages are unlikely, this amount of ice could make roads treacherous during the morning commute and potentially lead to scattered power outages if trees fall onto power lines.

Unsettled Weather Conditions and Additional Rain Chances

The rest of the week’s weather forecast is a mixed bag. We’re expecting unsettled conditions, with rain continuing through Monday night and more rain expected by Tuesday afternoon. But temperatures should rise to the lower to middle 40s by Tuesday afternoon, so that’s something to look forward to.

Sporadic rain chances are possible on Wednesday, and a few isolated showers may pop up on Thursday as additional disturbances pass through. A more organized system is expected to arrive later in the week, bringing widespread rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

Once the ground thaws enough to absorb the expected rainfall, we should be able to soak up most of the projected half inch to inch and a half of average rainfall before conditions dry out by next Sunday.

Temperature Outlook

Despite the unsettled and mostly cloudy conditions throughout the week, temperatures are expected to stay in the upper 40s to near 50° from Wednesday through Friday.

The approaching weekend system will temporarily push temperatures down into the lower 40s for Saturday and Sunday. But as we move into the following week, we can expect partly to mostly sunny skies and highs well into the 50s.

Conclusion

Folks, the First Alert Weather Day on Monday might bring some challenges, but we’re expecting things to improve as the week goes on. Road conditions may be tricky during the morning commute due to ice accumulation, so please be careful and give yourself extra time. The rest of the week will be unsettled, with more rain chances, but temperatures will stay above normal.

Stay tuned for further updates and more detailed forecasts as we keep an eye on the evolving weather patterns. Thanks for joining me, and have a great evening!