New Hampshire Primaries: Weather Forecast and Its Potential Impact on Voter Turnout

Introduction:

On February 9, 2024, New Hampshire will hold its primary elections, marking a pivotal moment in the 2024 presidential race. While the Iowa caucuses were marred by record-breaking cold, New Hampshire is bracing for a different weather scenario, characterized by warmer temperatures. However, the possibility of ice or snow looms, with precipitation potentially affecting voter turnout as polls close.

Weather Forecast and Potential Impact:

The FOX Forecast Center predicts temperatures in New Hampshire to hover in the upper 30s on Election Day, with scattered snow showers in certain areas. This forecast stands in stark contrast to the frigid conditions experienced in Iowa, where subzero temperatures and wind chills significantly impacted voter turnout.

Dr. David Richards, an associate professor and political chair at the University of Lynchburg, believes that the more favorable weather conditions in New Hampshire will likely contribute to a higher voter turnout. Historically, primary contests in New Hampshire have witnessed turnout rates at least double that of Iowa, and the prospect of a relatively mild weather day is expected to further boost participation.

Historical Trends:

An analysis of past weather events and their impact on voter turnout suggests a positive correlation between warmer weather and higher participation. Studies published in the journal Frontiers in Psychology indicate that voter turnout increased by 0.14% for every 1.8-degree jump in temperature. This suggests that the comparatively warmer weather in New Hampshire could potentially lead to a higher voter turnout.

Mount Washington: An Exception to the Warm-Up:

One notable exception to the predicted warmer weather is Mount Washington, the highest peak in the Northeastern United States. Renowned for its extreme weather conditions, Mount Washington is unlikely to experience the same temperature increase as the rest of the state. The mountaintop remains home to North America’s most extreme weather, with a reported wind chill of -108 degrees in 2023 and a 231-mph wind gust in 1934.

Voter Enthusiasm:

Dr. Richards emphasizes the significance of the New Hampshire primaries, stating that voters in the state take presidential elections very seriously. This enthusiasm is expected to contribute to a large turnout, regardless of the weather conditions.

Conclusion:

The New Hampshire primaries represent a crucial step in the 2024 presidential race, and the weather forecast suggests a more favorable scenario compared to the extreme cold experienced in Iowa. While warmer temperatures could potentially boost voter turnout, the enthusiasm of New Hampshire voters is expected to be the primary driving factor in determining the level of participation. As the race moves forward, subsequent contests in Nevada, the Virgin Islands, and South Carolina will present different weather conditions, adding to the dynamics of the electoral process.