New Hampshire Primary 2024: A Comprehensive Overview

On January 23, 2024, New Hampshire voters exercised their democratic privilege by participating in the first-in-the-nation primary, a tradition that has endured for over a century. This year’s primary, however, presented a unique landscape, with potential rejection of the Democratic primary results by the national party and a Republican race that had narrowed down to two main contenders. Delve into this comprehensive overview to grasp the intricacies of the New Hampshire primary and its profound significance in the broader political landscape.

New Hampshire’s Pioneering Role: A Historical Perspective

New Hampshire’s distinction as the first state to hold a primary election is not a coincidence but a result of a long-standing tradition and legal mandate. Since 1920, the Granite State has consistently held the first primary, except for Iowa, which operates a caucus system. This premier status was initially based on unwritten customs. However, following contentious Democratic primaries in 1968 and 1972, and the national trauma of the Watergate scandal, there were discussions about New Hampshire relinquishing its position in favor of a regional primary involving all six New England states.

In response to these discussions, Republican Governor Meldrim Thomson and Democratic State Representative Jim Splaine spearheaded legislation in 1975 to enshrine New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation status. Governor Thomson was a staunch advocate for preserving New Hampshire’s unique contribution to American democracy, viewing the primary as a way to uphold the ideal of “People above Politics.” Splaine’s bill gained traction and was passed shortly before the 1976 primaries. This legislation stipulates that the New Hampshire contest must be held at least one week before any other state primary and allows for the primary to be held in the calendar year before a general election if any other state attempts to jump the line. This law has cemented New Hampshire’s position as the first state to hold a primary election.

President Biden’s Absence and the DNC’s Response

President Joe Biden’s name was notably absent from the ballot in the New Hampshire primary. This decision stemmed from a resolution passed by national Democrats in 2020, prioritizing South Carolina as the first primary state due to its more diverse and representative population compared to Iowa and New Hampshire. However, New Hampshire’s Secretary of State, David Scanlan, stood firm in upholding the state’s law mandating the first-in-the-nation primary. As a result, both party primaries were scheduled for January 23, leading to a clash with the Democratic National Committee (DNC).

In response to New Hampshire’s defiance, the DNC announced that it would not award any delegates to the state for the summer’s national convention in Chicago. This decision aimed to send a clear message to New Hampshire that its actions would not be tolerated. Consequently, the Biden campaign, in deference to party bosses, did not register for the ballot, leaving the New Hampshire Democratic establishment to wage a write-in campaign in the hope of securing victory over challengers such as Representative Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and self-help author Marianne Williamson.

Independent Voters and Crossover Voting: Understanding New Hampshire’s Voting Landscape

New Hampshire’s electorate comprises three distinct groups: Republicans, Democrats, and undeclared voters. The undeclared group, often referred to as independents, constitutes the largest voting bloc and enjoys the unique ability to participate in either the Republican or Democratic primary under state law. This flexibility has strategic implications, as former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley actively courted these undeclared voters in her bid for the Republican nomination, much to the chagrin of former President Donald Trump.

However, it’s crucial to note that crossover voting, the act of a registered Democrat voting in a Republican primary or vice versa, is prohibited in New Hampshire. While undeclared voters can easily participate in either primary by requesting the desired ballot at their local polling place, registered Democrats who wished to vote for Haley had to register as Republicans or undeclared voters by October 6, 2023. This restriction effectively prevented registered Democrats from casting their votes for Haley, regardless of their intentions.

The Significance of New Hampshire: Momentum and Viability

New Hampshire’s position as the first primary state grants it significant influence in the presidential race. A victory in New Hampshire can provide candidates with critical momentum, propelling them forward in the race. In 2016, for instance, Trump’s resounding win in New Hampshire helped him overcome his narrow loss in the Iowa caucuses, ultimately paving the way for his Republican nomination. Similarly, in 2008, Republican voters in New Hampshire revived the flailing campaign of then-Senator John McCain with a significant victory over Mitt Romney, the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts.

This year, Haley’s campaign heavily relies on a strong showing in New Hampshire to establish her viability as a contender and demonstrate that Trump can be defeated. On the Democratic side, the primary serves as a gauge of Biden’s support among voters, considering his incumbency advantage and the challenges associated with write-in campaigns.

Predicting the Winners: Polls and Historical Trends

Based on recent polls and historical trends, Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner on the Republican side. He enjoys a double-digit lead over Haley in the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate, although the margin is not as wide as in the Iowa caucuses. On the Democratic side, Biden’s incumbency advantage is expected to propel him to victory despite the challenges of a write-in campaign.

The Road Ahead: Upcoming Contests and the Importance of South Carolina

Following the New Hampshire primary, the Democratic race shifts to South Carolina, where the controversial primary is scheduled for February 3. This primary has garnered attention due to its large African American population, which holds significant sway in the Democratic Party. For Republicans, both Nevada and the Virgin Islands are set to hold caucuses on February 8, followed by Haley’s participation in Nevada’s primary on February 6. However, the next major contest on the Republican side is the South Carolina primary on February 24, providing Haley and Trump with a month of intense campaigning before their next highly anticipated showdown.

Historically, New Hampshire has not favored Republican candidates in the general election since 2000, when George W. Bush narrowly defeated Al Gore. In 2020, Trump lost the state to Biden by a significant margin. As the race progresses, the outcomes of these upcoming contests will shape the trajectory of the 2024 presidential election.