New Hampshire 2024 Primary: A Contentious Race Amidst DNC Rule Changes

In the heart of the Granite State, a political storm is brewing, centered around the upcoming 2024 New Hampshire primary election. Scheduled for Tuesday, February 13, this primary has become a battleground of controversy due to recent alterations in the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) rules. The DNC’s decision to elevate South Carolina as the first official primary of the Democratic presidential nominating cycle has relegated the New Hampshire primary to “non-compliant” status, deeming it “meaningless” in the eyes of the national party. This unprecedented move has ignited outrage among New Hampshire leaders and voters, who are fiercely determined to uphold state law and preserve their cherished tradition of holding the first primary.

Key Issues and Developments

DNC Rule Changes and Controversies


The primary’s significance has been diminished by the DNC’s rule changes, which prioritize South Carolina as the inaugural primary. This decision has sparked a backlash from New Hampshire officials and residents, who argue that it blatantly violates state law and undermines the state’s long-standing precedent of initiating the primary process. The New Hampshire Attorney General has taken decisive action, filing a cease-and-desist letter against the DNC, accusing it of engaging in voter suppression.

Incumbent President Joe Biden’s Absence


Adding to the primary’s complexities is the conspicuous absence of President Joe Biden. The DNC has instructed candidates to “take all steps possible not to participate” in the primary, resulting in a fractured Democratic field. While some candidates, such as Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips and author Marianne Williamson, have defied the DNC’s directive and remained on the ballot, Biden has opted to bypass the state altogether.

Write-In Campaign for President Biden


In response to Biden’s absence, a grassroots write-in campaign has emerged, spearheaded by the president’s unwavering supporters in New Hampshire. This campaign aims to secure a write-in victory for Biden despite the inherent challenges of such an endeavor. Organizers are mobilizing volunteers to educate voters on the proper method of writing in Biden’s name on the ballot. The campaign has gained traction and support from prominent Democrats, yet it remains unaffiliated with Biden’s official reelection campaign.

Challenges and Logistics

Voter Education and Write-In Process


Write-in campaigns are inherently challenging, requiring extensive voter education. Supporters must meticulously instruct voters to bypass the list of Democratic candidates, fill in a bubble, and then diligently write the president’s name. The campaign draws inspiration from the successful write-in campaign of Senator Lisa Murkowski in Alaska in 2010, where significant advertising efforts were necessary to teach voters the correct spelling of her name.

Turnout and Voter Eligibility


The incumbent’s absence and the write-in campaign have introduced complexities in predicting voter turnout. The secretary of state anticipates a decline in turnout for the Democratic race due to the lack of major competition, but the write-in effort may potentially boost participation. Nearly 40% of the state’s voters are unaffiliated with any political party, granting them the flexibility to vote in either primary. Many of these voters have strategically switched their registration to undeclared, enabling them to participate in the Republican primary instead.

Counting Write-In Votes


The anticipated influx of write-in votes is expected to complicate the vote-counting process. Smaller towns will meticulously hand-count all ballots, while larger cities will utilize machines to segregate write-in ballots for manual counting. Election officials have proactively recruited additional volunteers to assist with the counting, which will continue until every vote is meticulously tallied.

Potential Outcomes and Implications

Biden’s Prospects and the Write-In Effort


Recent polls suggest that despite the inherent challenges of a write-in campaign, Biden maintains a comfortable lead over the other candidates on the ballot. Organizers are determined to secure a victory by obtaining one more vote than the candidate in second place. The success of this effort could potentially send a resounding message to the DNC and potentially influence the national race.

Impact on the Republican Race


The Republican primary in New Hampshire is poised to garner significant attention due to the multitude of candidates vying for the nomination. Undecided voters and those harboring dissatisfaction with Biden’s age and candidacy may opt to participate in the Republican primary, potentially boosting turnout and reshaping the race.

Challenges to the DNC’s Authority


New Hampshire’s defiance of the DNC’s rules in holding the primary could set a precedent and challenge the national party’s authority. The outcome of the primary and the write-in effort may potentially influence future DNC decisions and the role of state primaries in the presidential nominating process.

Conclusion

The 2024 New Hampshire primary stands as a pivotal moment in the Democratic presidential race, characterized by controversy, logistical challenges, and potential implications for the national party. The write-in campaign for President Biden and the state’s unwavering determination to hold the first primary have thrust New Hampshire into the national spotlight and raised pertinent questions about the future of the traditional primary process. The outcome of the primary could potentially shape the Democratic race and send a resounding message to the DNC about the significance of state primaries in the presidential nominating cycle.