Disqualification of Former President Rouhani from Elections Draws Mixed Reactions
Introduction
On January 25, 2024, the Iranian public exhibited a pronounced indifference towards the disqualification of former President Hassan Rouhani from running in the upcoming March 1 election for the Assembly of Experts. This decision, made by Iranian hardliners who control a prominent vetting mechanism, effectively barred Rouhani from seeking re-election to the body responsible for selecting the next Supreme Leader after Ali Khamenei’s passing.
Public Indifference Attributed to Rouhani’s Political Performance
Most Iranian analysts attribute the public indifference to Rouhani’s political positions and performance during his presidency, particularly during his second term from 2017 to 2021. Iranian social media researcher Mohammad Rahbari found that Google Trends metrics indicate that the majority of Iran-based queries on the Google search engine were related to the execution of 23-year-old political prisoner Mohammad Ghobadlou rather than Rouhani’s disqualification.
Disappointment and Disillusionment Among Iranian Citizens
Iran International TV analyst Mehdi Mahdavi Azad and investigative reporter Mojtaba Pourmohsen expressed their views on the public’s reaction to Rouhani’s disqualification. Azad argued that the people had grown disillusioned with Rouhani after initially supporting him with over 20 million votes in the 2013 and 2017 elections. They felt let down by Rouhani’s alignment with Khamenei and his hardline supporters. Pourmohsen suggested that Rouhani’s disqualification signaled Khamenei’s intention to nominate his son, Mojtaba, as the next Supreme Leader.
Inability to Address Public Demands and Lack of Confidence in Electoral Change
Ali Hossein Ghazizadeh, another Iran International analyst, attributed the public’s indifference to Rouhani’s disqualification to his perceived inability to address their demands during his presidency. Ghazizadeh argued that Rouhani’s leadership led many to believe that positive change within the Islamic Republic was unattainable, regardless of who held the executive branch. Even those supporting the regime lost faith in electoral processes as a means for meaningful change.
End of the Moderate Camp and Concerns about Rouhani’s Role in the Assembly of Experts
Morad Veisi, a senior Iran analyst, believes that Rouhani’s disqualification marks the demise of the moderate camp in Iran’s political landscape, which he led. Reformist commentator Abbas Abdi provided an alternative perspective, suggesting that the disqualification was more about Rouhani’s potential influence in determining Iran’s next leader at the Assembly of Experts rather than his past actions or inactions. Other analysts questioned Rouhani’s achievements during his 24 years as a member of the Assembly of Experts and expressed concerns about his continued presence among political rivals and adversaries within the body.
Potential Low Voter Turnout and Concerns over Political Purification
Rasoul Montajabnia, the Secretary-General of the Reformist Jomhouriat Party, expressed concerns that Rouhani’s absence could lead to low voter turnout in the upcoming March 1 elections. Even those who initially intended to participate might be discouraged after Rouhani’s disqualification. Gholam Ali Rajai, an adviser to former Expediency Council Chief Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, noted that other prominent figures, including conservative politician Mostafa Pourmohammadi and former Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi, have also been barred from participating in the elections. This raised speculation about a possible political purification process within Iran’s intelligence community.
Unlikely Reinstatement and Potential Setback for Rouhani
Some analysts speculated that an unlikely decree by Khamenei could reinstate Rouhani in the Assembly of Experts election. However, a defeat in that election would represent a significant setback for the former President.
Conclusion
The disqualification of former President Hassan Rouhani from the upcoming Assembly of Experts election elicited mixed reactions from the Iranian public, with many expressing indifference due to disappointment with his political positions and performance during his presidency. Concerns were raised about the end of the moderate camp, potential low voter turnout, and the possibility of political purification within Iran’s intelligence community. The situation underscores the complex political dynamics in Iran and the challenges facing the country’s leadership in addressing public discontent and ensuring a fair and transparent electoral process.