The Republican Primaries: A Fact Check on the Economic Claims

Introduction

The Republican primaries are in full swing, and the candidates have been taking turns criticizing President Biden’s economic policies, collectively known as “Bidenomics.” They assert that the US economy is struggling, with high deficits, excessive government spending, a growing national debt, rising interest rates, and elevated costs of essential goods. However, a closer examination of the economic data reveals a more nuanced picture, with indicators suggesting a robust economy.

Economic Indicators

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth:

The US economy experienced a remarkable 5.2% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the last quarter, outpacing pre-Covid recovery rates. This growth indicates a strong economic rebound.

Unemployment Rate:

The unemployment rate has reached a record low, demonstrating a healthy job market with ample opportunities for workers.

Job Creation:

The economy has been consistently adding hundreds of thousands of new jobs each month, indicating sustained job growth and a thriving labor market.

Open Job Opportunities:

The number of available job openings significantly exceeds pre-pandemic levels, reflecting a robust demand for labor and a favorable job market for job seekers.

Inflation:

While prices have risen, inflation has decreased from a 9% annual rate to approximately 3%, suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to counteract the treasury spending of the fiscal programs are having a positive impact.

Stock Market and Household Wealth:

The stock market is near all-time highs, and household wealth has also reached record levels, indicating consumer confidence and overall economic stability.

Credit Card and Loan Delinquency Rates:

Credit card delinquency rates are at their lowest in 30 years, and delinquencies across the banking system are similarly low, reflecting responsible borrowing and financial stability.

Holiday Retail Sales:

Holiday retail sales were robust, and online sales experienced a surge, indicating strong consumer spending and economic activity.

Capital Availability for Businesses:

Businesses have access to ample capital, and corporations hold more cash on hand than before the pandemic, facilitating investment and growth opportunities.

Opinions from Industry Associations:

Based on discussions with dozens of industry associations, the author reports that most businesses experienced a positive 2023. Major banks reported strong earnings, retailers and restaurants have recovered from the pandemic, convention traffic in Las Vegas has returned to pre-Covid levels, and businesses in the service sector have experienced consecutive months of growth.

Challenges and Struggles:

Despite the overall positive economic indicators, certain sectors face challenges. The real estate industry grapples with high housing prices and low home sales, manufacturing has been in contraction for 14 months, media companies are struggling, technology firms face financing difficulties, and small businesses face higher costs of capital. However, these challenges are sector-specific and do not represent the overall economic landscape.

Conclusion

While there are potential factors that could disrupt the economic trajectory, such as geopolitical conflicts, oil price fluctuations, terrorist attacks, or another pandemic, the current economic indicators paint a picture of a robust and growing economy. The Republican candidates’ criticisms of Bidenomics may be politically motivated and do not accurately reflect the overall economic health of the nation. While Bidenomics may not be solely responsible for the positive economic performance, it is inaccurate to assert that the US economy is in a dire state.