The 2024 Republican Primary: DeSantis Drops Out, New Hampshire Expectations, and the Future of the Race

Introduction

With Florida Governor Ron DeSantis officially withdrawing from the presidential race, the Republican primary has effectively become a two-person contest between former President Donald Trump and former Vice President Mike Pence. This development has significant implications for the dynamics of the race and the trajectory of the Republican Party. In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew delves into the latest developments, analyzes the remaining candidates’ strategies, and contemplates the potential impact of a recent poll on New Hampshire voters’ understanding of the 14th Amendment.

DeSantis’ Withdrawal: A Major Shakeup

Ron DeSantis’ decision to drop out of the Republican presidential race marks a pivotal moment in the contest. Once considered a formidable contender, DeSantis’ departure reshapes the landscape of the primary. The crew discusses the factors that may have influenced his decision, including the challenges of raising funds, the crowded field of candidates, and the potential risks of a protracted primary battle. They also examine the implications of DeSantis’ withdrawal for the remaining candidates, particularly Trump and Pence, and consider whether it will lead to a more unified or fractured Republican Party.

New Hampshire: A State in Focus

The upcoming New Hampshire primary is a crucial test for the remaining Republican candidates. As the first primary in the nation, New Hampshire holds significant sway in shaping the race and often serves as a bellwether for the rest of the contest. The crew analyzes the dynamics of the New Hampshire electorate, highlighting the importance of independent voters and the potential impact of the state’s tradition of moderate Republicanism. They also discuss the candidates’ strategies for securing victory in New Hampshire, examining their campaign tactics, messaging, and efforts to appeal to the state’s unique political landscape.

The Future of the Republican Primary

With the Republican primary now a two-person race, the focus shifts to the strategies and tactics that Trump and Pence will employ to secure the nomination. The crew explores the potential advantages and disadvantages of each candidate, examining their strengths, weaknesses, and paths to victory. They also consider the role of third-party candidates and the possibility of a brokered convention, where no candidate enters the Republican National Convention with a majority of delegates. Additionally, they discuss the impact of the ongoing investigations into Trump’s actions on January 6, 2021, and how they might affect the outcome of the primary.

Poll on 14th Amendment Understanding: A Valid Measure?

A recent poll conducted in New Hampshire asked residents how well they understood the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. The results revealed that a significant portion of respondents had little or no understanding of the amendment, which guarantees citizenship to all persons born or naturalized in the United States. The crew debates whether this poll is a valid measure of civic knowledge or simply a reflection of the complex and often misunderstood nature of the Constitution. They also discuss the implications of the poll’s findings for American democracy and the importance of ensuring that citizens have a basic understanding of the foundational principles of their government.

Conclusion

The Republican primary has undergone a dramatic transformation with the withdrawal of Ron DeSantis. As the race now centers on Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the dynamics and strategies of the contest will undoubtedly evolve. The upcoming New Hampshire primary looms large, and the candidates’ performances there could significantly influence the trajectory of the race. The poll on New Hampshire residents’ understanding of the 14th Amendment raises important questions about civic knowledge and the need for informed citizenship. As the Republican primary unfolds, it remains to be seen who will emerge as the party’s standard-bearer and how the outcome will shape the future of American politics.