Arizona’s Upset Loss and the Impact on Its NCAA Tournament Prospects
A Shocking Defeat in Corvallis
In a highly anticipated Pac-12 matchup, No. 16 Arizona suffered a stunning 83-80 defeat at the hands of unranked Oregon State on Thursday night. The Wildcats, who were favored by a significant margin, were stunned by a buzzer-beating three-pointer from Jordan Pope, sparking a wild court storm in Corvallis.
The Costly Quadrant 3 Loss
This unexpected loss deals a significant blow to Arizona’s NCAA Tournament aspirations. The defeat falls under the category of a Quadrant 3 loss, which is a type of loss that elite teams typically strive to avoid. Such losses can have a negative impact on a team’s tournament resume, potentially affecting its seeding and overall chances of making a deep run in March.
Arizona’s Recent Struggles
Arizona’s loss to Oregon State is particularly concerning given the team’s recent form. After a promising 8-0 start to the season, the Wildcats have gone just 6-5 in their last 11 games. Two of those losses have come against teams ranked outside the top 100 of the NET rankings, further highlighting the team’s inconsistency.
KenPom’s Projection and the Pac-12 Title
Despite the recent setbacks, KenPom.com remains optimistic about Arizona’s chances of winning the Pac-12 title. The projection system forecasts the Wildcats to finish with a 15-5 record in conference play, giving them a comfortable margin over their rivals. This suggests that Arizona still has the potential to secure a strong regular-season finish and earn a high seed in the NCAA Tournament.
The Need to Avoid Questionable Losses
However, if Arizona wants to secure a favorable NCAA Tournament seed, it needs to eliminate these types of questionable losses. Failing to do so could jeopardize its chances of earning a top seed, even if the team manages to win the Pac-12 championship.
The Significance of the Pac-12’s National Ranking
The Pac-12 conference’s strong national ranking, currently sitting at sixth according to the NET, provides Arizona with an opportunity to bolster its tournament resume. A conference championship would add a significant boost to the team’s profile and could potentially offset some of the damage caused by the Quadrant 3 loss to Oregon State.
Conclusion
Arizona’s upset loss to Oregon State serves as a stark reminder of the challenges that lie ahead for the Wildcats in their quest for a deep NCAA Tournament run. The team must learn from this setback and avoid similar lapses in concentration and execution. With a strong finish to the regular season and a Pac-12 championship, Arizona can still overcome this setback and secure a favorable NCAA Tournament seed.