South Braces for Prolonged Wet Weather Event, with Excessive Rainfall and Flash Flood Threats

Multiday Precipitation to Soak Gulf Coast and Southeast

The Gulf Coast and Southeast regions of the United States are preparing for a significant multiday wet-weather event, bringing the heaviest precipitation of the year to many communities. Forecasters predict that widespread rainfall accumulations of 3-5 inches are likely, with isolated areas potentially receiving up to 10 inches of rain. This deluge could lead to flash flooding, prompting officials to issue warnings and watches.

Moisture Convergence and Embedded Thunderstorms

A weather pattern conducive to heavy rainfall is developing over the region. As a warm front moves across the Lower 48 states, it will allow moisture to build up along the Gulf Coast, creating favorable conditions for persistent precipitation. Multiple waves of moisture are expected to impact the Interstate 10 corridor, some of which may contain embedded thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds.

Rainfall Timing and Distribution

The highest chances of rainfall will occur between Sunday and Thursday, but not all hours of each day will experience wet weather. Computer forecast models indicate three primary plumes of moisture developing throughout the week, bringing the heaviest rainfall to the region. The first wave is expected to arrive on Sunday, followed by a lull in precipitation on Monday. The second wave, potentially the most significant, is anticipated to impact the region from Tuesday to Wednesday, bringing widespread heavy rainfall. Finally, a third wave may bring additional rain on Thursday, although its intensity is less certain.

Excessive Rainfall and Potential Flash Flooding

A wide swath of the Gulf Coast and Southeast could receive 3-5 inches of rainfall, with some isolated areas approaching 10 inches. Both Houston and New Orleans are included in the excessive rainfall zone, where totals could reach around a half-foot by the end of the week. As accumulations mount, the potential for flash flooding increases, prompting the issuance of watches and warnings during the workweek. Residents in flood-prone areas are urged to take precautions and monitor local weather updates.

Welcome Relief for Precipitation Deficit

While the heavy rainfall poses potential risks, it could also provide welcome relief for many communities facing precipitation deficits. Many areas in the region have experienced drier-than-normal conditions, making the upcoming rainfall a significant event. The precipitation is expected to help replenish water supplies, ease drought conditions, and support agricultural activities.

Winter Weather Transitions to Liquid Precipitation

With the exception of light freezing rain in the Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley, where the precipitation meets colder air, most of the precipitation will fall in liquid form due to rising temperatures. However, ice formation remains a possibility at temperatures above freezing if colder air exists near the ground level. Motorists are advised to exercise caution, especially on bridges and overpasses, where freezing rain could create hazardous driving conditions.

Moderate Temperatures and Cloud Cover

Temperatures are expected to moderate throughout the workweek, with highs reaching the 60s and 70s for many in the South. Areas with extensive cloud cover and rain will experience cooler temperatures compared to those with more sunshine. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures are expected to remain above average for the foreseeable future.

Residents in the affected areas are advised to stay informed about the latest weather forecasts and follow instructions from local authorities. Those living in flood-prone areas should be prepared to evacuate if necessary. Motorists should exercise caution on wet roads and avoid driving through flooded areas.