Analyzing Three Fourth-Round SP1 Options for Fantasy Drafts

With fantasy baseball drafts rapidly approaching, it’s time to delve into the realm of starting pitchers who fall within a specific ADP range. In this article, we’ll examine three starters who are going in the fourth round of 15-team drafts: Tarik Skubal, Aaron Nola, and Freddy Peralta.

These pitchers represent the final tier of SP1s based on ADP, but two of them have never been drafted this high before and have had prior injury concerns. Therefore, it’s crucial to analyze their strengths, weaknesses, and potential pitfalls to make informed decisions in our drafts.

Tarik Skubal: A Tale of Velocity and Scheduling

Despite pitching just 80.1 innings in 2023, Skubal has emerged as a top-50 pick due to his dominant performance in those limited innings. His impressive statistics include a 2.80 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate, 28.4% K-BB%, and 14.9% swinging strike rate. These improvements over his 2022 performance raise the question: Can we confidently select Skubal within the top 50?

Skubal’s increased four-seam velocity from 94.1 mph in 2022 to 95.8 mph in 2023 is a key factor in his success. This added velocity resulted in a 14.6% SwStr% on the four-seam, a 2.40 dERA, and a 41.3% O-Swing. However, there is some concern that Skubal’s fastball velocity may dip closer to 95 mph over a full season. This could potentially lead to a decrease in his strikeout gains from 2023.

Moreover, Skubal’s success in 2023 raises questions about the role of his schedule. Over half of his starts came against some of the weakest offenses in baseball. In those eight starts, he registered an impressive 1.88 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 37% strikeout rate, and 4% walk rate. Therefore, it’s essential to assess how much of his success was due to his changes and how much was due to a favorable schedule.

While Skubal’s fastball gains and improved change-up are promising, his slider remains a concern. It was less effective in 2023, missing fewer bats and posting a higher dERA compared to 2022. This raises concerns about his ability to generate strikeouts against right-handed batters, especially if his four-seam velocity declines.

Overall, Skubal’s potential is undeniable, but his ADP in the top 50 seems too high considering the uncertainties surrounding his fastball velocity, schedule, and slider effectiveness.

Aaron Nola: A Retread with Inconsistent Performance

Aaron Nola’s impressive career ERA of 3.72 and WHIP of 1.13 are overshadowed by his recent inconsistent performance. In 2023, he had a frustrating season with a 4.46 ERA, 25.5% strikeout rate, 19.8% K-BB%, and 11.8% SwStr%. His strikeout rate, in particular, saw a significant dip compared to his previous years.

Age and health concerns don’t seem to be factors for Nola, as he’s only 30 years old and has shown no meaningful decline in velocity or increased injury risk. Therefore, it’s worth examining his pitch mix to identify potential issues.

Nola’s four-seam fastball has become more hittable, allowing a higher Ideal Contact Rate (ICR) in 2023. He tends to throw it up in the zone, which can lead to more hard contact. Additionally, his inside location to right-handed batters is lacking, making it easier for them to extend their arms and do damage.

Nola’s sinker, however, shows promise. He started using it more in 2023 and threw it inside to right-handed batters more frequently. This could be a key adjustment to keep hitters off his four-seam and allow him to effectively bury his curveball low and away.

However, Nola’s curveball has also seen a decline in horizontal movement over the years, leading to a decrease in SwStr% and putaway rate against right-handed batters. This raises concerns about its effectiveness as a swing-and-miss pitch, especially considering its importance in Nola’s arsenal.

Given these factors, it may be more appropriate to consider Nola as an elite SP2 in fantasy rather than a top-tier SP1.

Freddy Peralta: High Upside with Innings Concerns

Freddy Peralta possesses perhaps the highest upside among the three pitchers in this group, but he has also thrown over 150 innings just once in his career. However, it’s important to note that he was not a full-time starting pitcher until 2021, averaging 129.1 innings per season over the last three years.

In 2023, Peralta made 30 starts and posted impressive statistics, including a 3.86 ERA, 30.9% strikeout rate, 17.8% K-BB%, and 14.4% SwStr%. He also had an elite 35.2% ICR, indicating his ability to miss bats and avoid hard contact.

Peralta’s arsenal consists of four pitches with at least a 14.5% SwStr% rate. He attacks right-handed batters with a four-seam and slider combo, while he uses a four-seam, change, and curve approach against left-handed batters. His slider is his best swing-and-miss pitch, but his dERA and hard hit metrics are actually better against lefties due to his more diverse arsenal.

Peralta’s main concern lies in his innings limit. The Brewers typically pull him after six innings, and his cross-body mechanics may pose injury risks. However, it’s important to keep perspective that he has been mostly healthy for two out of his three seasons as a full-time starter.

Considering the inherent risk associated with drafting starting pitchers this year due to injuries and absences, it may be more prudent to prioritize quality over quantity. Peralta offers a solid 130-160 innings with consistent stud-level performance when he’s on the mound. This makes him a more reliable option compared to Nola, who may pitch more innings but has more uncertainties surrounding his performance.

Eric’s Rankings

1. Freddy Peralta – SP12
2. Aaron Nola – SP13
3. Tarik Skubal – SP14 (subject to change based on ADP fluctuations)

In conclusion, while all three pitchers have their strengths and weaknesses, Freddy Peralta stands out as the most consistently stud arm among them. Peralta’s quality innings and reliable performance make him a more desirable choice compared to the uncertainties surrounding Nola and Skubal. However, ADP fluctuations may warrant adjustments to these rankings, so it’s essential to stay informed and make informed decisions during your fantasy drafts.