2024 New Hampshire Primary: A Rapidly Narrowing Republican Field
The New Hampshire primary, held on Tuesday, February 14, 2024, marked a pivotal moment in the race to determine the Republican presidential nominee. With only two candidates remaining competitive – Donald Trump and Nikki Haley – the once-crowded field has experienced a rapid narrowing.
DeSantis Exit and the Rapid Narrowing of the Field
Just days before the New Hampshire primary, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a prominent contender, unexpectedly ended his campaign, throwing his support behind Donald Trump. This move followed disappointing finishes for Vivek Ramaswamy and Asa Hutchinson in the Iowa caucuses, further solidifying the shrinking Republican field.
This trend of a rapidly narrowing Republican field is not unprecedented. In 2016, out of the 11 major Republican candidates who competed in Iowa, it took just over 90 days for Donald Trump to emerge as the sole remaining candidate. This year, only a week after Iowa, Haley remains as the sole challenger to Trump, setting the stage for one of the shortest competitive primary seasons in recent history.
The 2016 Democratic Race and the Contrast
In contrast to the Republican field, the Democratic field in 2016 narrowed to Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders after the Iowa caucuses, but the race remained highly competitive throughout the primary season. Clinton ultimately secured the nomination, but Sanders maintained strong support among Democratic voters.
Trump’s Dominance in Iowa and New Hampshire
Trump’s performance in the Iowa caucuses was nothing short of dominant. He won 98 out of 99 counties and outperformed his 2016 results, securing over 50% of the vote. This marked the biggest victory in the history of the Iowa caucuses. Haley came in third with 19.1% of the vote.
In New Hampshire, Trump continued to hold a strong lead according to a recent CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire. He held 50% support among likely Republican primary voters, while Haley had 39% and DeSantis had 6%. After reallocating DeSantis’s supporters to their second-choice candidates, Trump’s lead over Haley widened to 54% to 41%.
Conclusion
The 2024 Republican primary season is shaping up to be one of the shortest in recent history, with only two candidates remaining competitive after the Iowa and New Hampshire contests. Trump’s strong performance in Iowa and his continued lead in New Hampshire position him as the frontrunner in the race for the Republican nomination.