CNN Poll: Trump Maintains Commanding Lead in New Hampshire GOP Primary
Donald Trump’s grip on the Republican Party remains unwavering, as he retains a commanding lead over his rivals in the New Hampshire primary, according to a recent CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire. The poll reveals Trump’s enduring popularity among GOP voters, underscoring the challenges his challengers face in dethroning the former president.
Trump’s Dominance: A Commanding Lead
Trump’s support among likely Republican primary voters stands at an impressive 50%, a testament to his enduring influence within the GOP. His closest competitor, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, trails significantly with 39% support. The remaining candidates, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and others, struggle to gain traction, with single-digit support levels.
Haley’s Gains: Making Inroads with Certain Groups
While Haley trails Trump significantly, she has made some headway among specific voter groups. Her efforts to appeal to undeclared voters, moderates, and college graduates have yielded some success, though these groups still constitute a minority of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire. Haley’s challenge lies in expanding her support beyond these limited segments.
Trump’s Base: Strong Support from Core Constituents
Trump’s strength lies in his unwavering support from the GOP base. He enjoys overwhelming backing among registered Republicans, conservatives, and those without a college degree. These core constituents form the bedrock of Trump’s support and remain steadfast in their loyalty. This solid base provides Trump with a formidable advantage in the primary race.
Undecided Voters: Leaning Towards Haley, Awaiting Clarity
Approximately 1 in 5 likely Republican primary voters remain undecided, presenting an opportunity for both Trump and Haley to sway their support. A majority of these undecided voters lean towards Haley, suggesting that she might be able to chip away at Trump’s lead if she can effectively communicate her message and appeal to their concerns.
New Hampshire Voters’ Expectations: Trump Favored, Biden Preferred
New Hampshire voters broadly anticipate Trump to secure the Republican nomination and would be content with him as their party’s presidential candidate. This sentiment reflects Trump’s enduring popularity among GOP voters and their willingness to embrace him as their standard-bearer in the 2024 presidential election.
Trump’s Image: More Favorable Than Opponents
Trump maintains a more favorable image than Haley or DeSantis among the primary electorate. This positive perception likely stems from his name recognition, his time in the White House, and his continued engagement with the Republican base. His challengers face an uphill battle in overcoming Trump’s strong personal brand.
Trump’s Policy Positions: Resonating with Republican Voters
A majority of likely Republican voters believe Trump would deliver on key policy promises, such as building a wall along the US-Mexico border, ending the Russia-Ukraine war, reimposing a travel ban on Muslim-majority countries, and appointing a special prosecutor to investigate President Joe Biden and his family. These positions align with the priorities of many Republican voters, further solidifying Trump’s support within the party.
Biden’s Prospects in New Hampshire: Strong Support, Lower Enthusiasm
On the Democratic side, about two-thirds of likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire plan to write in Biden, who is not officially on the state’s primary ballot due to DNC rules violations. Biden enjoys high levels of support among Democratic primary voters, but his campaign faces the challenge of generating the same level of enthusiasm as Trump among GOP voters.
Biden’s Performance: Views Diverge on His Presidency
Most likely Democratic primary voters believe Biden has done more to help the country than hurt it during his presidency. However, his approval ratings are lower than Trump’s among GOP voters, indicating a more divided assessment of his performance. This divide reflects the partisan polarization that continues to shape American politics.
New Hampshire Adults’ Views on Trump and Biden: Mixed Assessments
Overall, a majority of New Hampshire adults view Trump’s presidency negatively, while holding a mixed view of Biden’s performance. This sentiment highlights the deep political divisions that persist in the state and across the country.
Methodology: Ensuring Accuracy and Reliability
The CNN New Hampshire poll was conducted online from January 16-19 by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The poll surveyed a total