Valentine’s Day 2024: Box Office Preview and Long Range Forecast

With Valentine’s Day falling on a Wednesday this year, studios are getting a jump on the long weekend that will be bookended by Presidents Day the following Monday. Here’s a look at how expectations for those releases are shaping up so far.

Bob Marley: One Love

Studio: Paramount Pictures
Release Date: February 14, 2024
3-Day FSS Opening Weekend Range: $11M-$16M
Domestic Total Range: $35M-$69M

Weekend Pros:

* Biopic Bob Marley: One Love could be an appealing option over the long holiday frame given the hopeful nature of Marley’s music and life-affirming philosophies.
* Madame Web will hope to court comic book fans over the date-friendly Valentine’s debut, with particular interest surrounding co-star Sydney Sweeney’s social media pull in the wake of Anyone But You’s sleeper success. Reception will need to be strong in the wake of what’s tracking to be a debut closer to the likes of Birds of Prey and Morbius than the fellow Spider-Man spin-off Venom films.
* The Chosen will likely again draw from its core faith-based audience, a crowd that has shown up in very respectable numbers for previous episode debuts in theaters.

Weekend Cons:

* Biopics such as One Love can be challenging to sell in today’s marketplace, where similar films have dominated the streaming landscape. Likewise, the target adult audience that’s most familiar with Marley has also proven in this day and age to be more selective with what films bring them out to theaters.
* Similarly, post-pandemic, comic book movies are no longer an automatic hot commodity among general audiences unless there’s a significant hook. Based on a character less familiar outside the core fanbase, Madame Web has work to do with an early marketing campaign that has often become meme-worthy in various online social circles.
* As a tried-and-true brand with non-premiere and non-finale episodes debuting, it’s feasible that even the Chosen franchise’s fans may feel less urgency to see these middle chapters outside their homes.

Madame Web

Studio: Sony / Columbia Pictures
Release Date: February 14, 2024
3-Day FSS Opening Weekend Range: $25M-$35M
Domestic Total Range: $56M-$101M

Weekend Pros:

* Madame Web could benefit from the strong appeal of its source material, as the character has a dedicated fan base among comic book readers.
* The film’s cast, which includes Dakota Johnson, Sydney Sweeney, and Emma Roberts, is likely to draw in a wide range of moviegoers.
* The film’s release date is well-timed, as it falls during a period when there are few other major releases.

Weekend Cons:

* Madame Web is a relatively unknown character to general audiences, which could limit its box office potential.
* The film’s marketing campaign has been met with mixed reviews, with some critics arguing that it is too confusing and does not do enough to explain the character’s backstory.
* The film’s release date is close to that of Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania, which is likely to draw away some potential moviegoers.

The Chosen

Studio: Angel Studios
Release Date: February 1, 2024 and February 15, 2024
3-Day FSS Opening Weekend Range: $7M-$11M and $6M-$10M
Domestic Total Range: $11M-$18M and $9M-$16M

Weekend Pros:

* The Chosen is a popular faith-based series that has a loyal following.
* The film’s release date is well-timed, as it falls during a period when there are few other major releases.
* The film’s marketing campaign has been effective in generating buzz among its target audience.

Weekend Cons:

* The Chosen is a niche film that is unlikely to appeal to a wide range of moviegoers.
* The film’s release date is close to that of Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania, which is likely to draw away some potential moviegoers.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar

The following table shows the long range box office forecast for the films mentioned above, as well as other upcoming releases in 2024.

| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Weekend Range | Domestic Total Range | Distributor |
|—|—|—|—|—|
| January 26, 2024 | Miller’s Girl | $2,000,000 – $5,000,000 | $4,500,000 – $14,000,000 | Lionsgate |
| January 26, 2024 | Underdoggs | $5,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $12,000,000 – $23,000,000 | United Artists |
| January 26, 2024 | The Concierge | $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 | $4,500,000 – $9,000,000 | Sony / Crunchyroll |
| January 26, 2024 | Housekeeping for Beginners (Limited) | $1,000,000 – $2,000,000 | $2,500,000 – $5,000,000 | Focus Features |
| February 1, 2024 | The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1 – 3 | $7,000,000 – $11,000,000 | $11,000,000 – $18,000,000 | Fathom Events |
| February 2, 2024 | Argylle | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $65,000,000 – $95,000,000 | Universal Pictures / Apple Original Films |
| February 2, 2024 | Scrambled | $2,000,000 – $5,000,000 | $4,500,000 – $14,000,000 | Lionsgate |
| February 8, 2024 | 2 Win | $2,000,000 – $4,000,000 | $5,000,000 – $12,000,000 | Lionsgate |
| February 9, 2024 | Lisa Frankenstein | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $23,000,000 – $46,000,000 | Focus Features |
| February 9, 2024 | The Origin | $2,000,000 – $5,000,000 | $5,000,000 – $15,000,000 | Bleecker Street |
| February 9, 2024 | Turning Red | $25,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $60,000,000 – $100,000,000 | Disney / Pixar |
| February 14, 2024 | Bob Marley: One Love | $11,000,000 – $16,000,000 | $35,000,000 – $69,000,000 | Paramount Pictures |
| February 14, 2024 | Madame Web | $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $56,000,000 – $101,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures |
| February 15, 2024 | The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6 | $6,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $9,000,000 – $16,000,000 | Angel Studios |

Disclaimer:

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.